Posts Categorized: Uncategorized

Quora post: How do I get where I want to be?

I came across the following question on Quora:

(I want, I want, I want) How do I get where I want to be?

Edit

I’m a 24 year old british software engineer.

I love my job, and enjoy working for my current company I work for but I’m constantly thinking I want to make something people will love and go out on my own.

All I read on the internet is “quit your job and start your idea” and other outrageous statements.

I’m 24, I’m on ~$30,000 a year (< £25,000), if I did this I wouldn’t last 2 months. It’s impossible and I hate the way a lot of people assume that people have ~10k behind them and can just quit their day job.

I want the ups and downs of building something of my own, I want to see the world and I want to enjoy my time here.

I’m ambitious, I’m driven, I’m pretty stubborn, I’m dedicated and I’m a sponge. I want to learn – everything.

I’ve read everything that a co-founder is super important and I can see why, unfortunately, no one I know (aside from my co workers) are tech/business minded.

What do I do? My heart says shut the fuck up and build something. My head says I’m fighting an impossible battle and my location, work/life schedule, lack of residual income is almost too much to overcome.

I’m not looking for pity and I’m certainly not looking for a hand out.

I’m just interested in what others have done, were they lucky? did they relocate?

I think I need to make my own luck, but how!

As is usual, I couldn’t resist writing an answer – quite a long answer, as it turned out:

Sit down and really think about why you want to do a startup. A lot of people fantasise about the day they can quit their jobs and start up by themselves – and then realise after doing so that all their fantasies had revolved around quitting their job, and they hadn’t considered that the startup would be a slog as well.

There are an infinite variety of bad reasons to do a startup. “It’s what all the cool kids are doing”, “I wanna be on Techrunch”, “pg told me to”, “If I follow my bliss, I’ll be truly fulfilled!”, etc.  The question you should ask yourself is not “am I passionate about this idea?” but “can I see myself working full-time on this business for the next 5 years?” If you don’t have a solid reason, you will flake. If you do, you’ll be able to keep plugging away – maybe pivoting, but always keeping your eyes focused on the prize – until something finally takes off.

In my eyes, there are three good reasons to do a startup that will keep you motivated through those five years.

The first reason is meaning; you’re solving a problem that you, personally, care about – whether it’s a problem you feel yourself, or you really care about helping a particular group of people.

The second is mastery; the chance to develop and express a particular skill. (E.g., many programmers are drawn towards working on tough technical problems, regardless of their interest in the real-world benefits). A lot of people seem to enjoy building businesses just for the fun of it – I suspect that they are really pursuing mastery of some particular industry.

The third is money. There are good and bad reasons to chase money. Financial independence, or philanthropy, or even just being able to buy your own diamonte-studded batmobile are probably solid motivations.  “Justin Timberlake said a billion dollars was cool” probably isn’t.

It’s important to figure this out as it will determine the shape and strategy of your startup. For example, if there’s a particular problem you feel needs to be solved, it might make sense to raise VC money so you reach as many people as possible. If you just want to build cool products, you might prefer to fund them via Kickstarter. If you want to be financially independent before 30, bootstrapping is the obvious path.

Now onto some practical stuff: yes, those “just quit your job and startup today!” people are annoying. Often they’re talking to themselves, not to you, so just ignore them. But anyway, there are several ways you could fund yourself while doing a startup. The most obvious are freelancing, finding a part-time job, passive income/low-maintenance businesses, or doing a PhD. There are other possibilities, like buying and selling on eBay or online poker, but since you can program already you might as well make use of that.

I’d definitely recommend trying to establish another income stream before quitting your job. IE, start spending your evenings and weekends from now on either freelancing or setting up a passive income site. If that sounds like a chore – full-time entrepreneurship is going to be even harder. It’s a good chance to see if you can cope with the slog.

Given that you’re earning less than £25k, I’m going to assume that you’re somewhat lacking in either programming or sales skills. 90% chance its the latter. Being poor at sales and marketing doesn’t make you an unworthy person, it’s just something you haven’t learned. But it will definitely hold you back until you do learn it. Read everything Patrick Mackenzie (patio11) writes – he went from under-appreciated corporate coder to bad-ass world-travelling tech/marketing consultant in just a few years. Given the way you write I think you already have the right mindset, there’s probably just a few specific things you need to fix.

As for finding a cofounder – meetups and hackathons will help you find potential partners. I was skeptical but I met a few people who found cofounders this way. Having a demo product helps a lot with attracting other people to come on board.

As a great man (or maybe it was Bon Jovi, can’t remember) once said: luck ain’t even luck you gotta make your own breaks. We’re all rooting for you!

Original here.

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Fat Ninjas

Here’s a project I was working on last year, but for various reasons never got around to properly finishing it. I recently decided to get the code I have so far online, even if it’s not perfect.

Play it here

Tip: play on Explore mode, it’s more fun (though trickier).

The game concept is quite unusual, mostly because it “evolved” over time rather than being preplanned. I was interning at a social gaming startup where I was tasked with researching HTML5 (they were a Flash shop).

I had the idea to do a lemmings-meets-Angry Birds type game, with a ninjas theme, and coded up a very basic demo in HTML5 where you could click and drag ninjas to send them flying as they walked around. That was fun, but not really a game. Then I added a Falling-Sand inspired water simulator, just to see if I could code it up, which turned out to be more fun than the ninjas. Then I added randomly generated caves filled with gold, which turned out to be the nucleus of a playable game.

So the odd theme (underground ninjas?) and some of the odd mechanics (endless ninjas?) are attributable to its weird genesis. I did try and carry on with the project after I left that company, but university got in the way.

I can think of lots of ways I could improve this game (for a start, I’d change it so you just have one ninja, and collecting gold lets you buy extra lives or powerups) but I’ve decided it’s not the most valuable thing I could be working on right now. Hopefully people will still find it enjoyable, though.

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Struggle To Maintain Exercise Habits While Travelling?

For some reason, there’s a correlation between being into travelling and being into working out. (Maybe it’s all the Tim Ferris fanboys like me out there ;) ). But it’s tough maintaining fitness habits on the road. Well, if you’re into cardio, you can go running anywhere, but any kind of  strength training is tough. Gyms everywhere seem to require long-term signups, and its not like you can put barbells in your carry-on luggage.

Here’s a solution that worked for me on my recent trip to Paris. The Convict Conditioning programme. (The rest of the time I follow Stronglifts). Convict Conditioning is a strength training programme built around bodyweight exercises (pushups, pullups, etc), which you can do anywhere.

This cheat sheet explains the basics of the programme. The book goes into more detail.

Basically, the author claims that he learned this workout programme while stuck in prison with no gym equipment, and that it’s based on knowledge passed down from convict to convict. I don’t really buy the background story, but the programme itself makes a lot of sense.

What I like is that it’s based on a very steady progression. For example, the last stage of the pullups sequence involves one-handed pullups — truly an impressive feat of strength — but the first stage involves trivially easy horizontal pullups. Each intermediate level is only a small step up from the previous, meaning that if you approach the programme with a patient mindset, you will, eventually, (supposedly) reach the ultimate levels.

I think the programme might be too slow — most reasonably fit people could probably start somewhere between level 3 and level 5 — but the basic philosophy is good. And of course, since you don’t need any equipment, it’s an ideal substitute workout programme for when you’re on the road :D

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Editing Practice

I came across this post on the Atlantic: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/05/a-conservatives-approach-to-combating-climate-change/257827/. There’s nothing special about this particular post (I’m not strongly for or against the arguments made in it) – I just found the writing overly long-winded, so I was tempted to try and edit it, and see how much I could trim it down by without altering the meaning.

In the end I managed to cut out about one third of the words. I did my editing paragraph by paragraph, so I’ve listed below each paragraph from my version alongside the corresponding paragraph from the original.

Original Version

No environmental issue is more polarizing than global climate. Many on the left fear increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases threaten an environmental apocalypse while many on the right believe anthropogenic global warming is much ado about nothing and, at worst, a hoax.  Both sides pretend as if the climate policy debate is, first and foremost, about science, rather than policy. This is not so. There is substantial uncertainty about the scope, scale, and consequences of anthropogenic warming, and will be for some time, but this is not sufficient justification for ignoring global warming or pretending that climate change is not a serious problem.

My Version

Climate change is a polarising issue. Many on the left fear an environmental apocalypse. Many on the right believe it’s all a hoax. Both sides pretend as if the climate policy debate is about science, rather than policy. This is not so. There is substantial uncertainty about the scope, scale, and consequences of global warming, but this does not justify ignoring it altogether.

Note: most of the original is generic filler, that should be already obvious to anyone familiar with the debate. The most original idea here is that the debate is too focused on the science, rather than policy – unfortunately this idea is not properly expanded on in the rest of the article.

Original Version

Though my political leanings are most definitely right-of-center, and it would be convenient to believe otherwise, I believe there is sufficient evidence that global warming is a serious environmental concern.  I have worked on this issue for twenty years, including a decade at the Competitive Enterprise Institute where I edited this book. I believe human activities have contributed to increases in greenhouse concentrations, and these increases can be expected to produce a gradual increase in global mean temperatures. While substantial uncertainties remain as to the precise consequences of this increase and consequent temperature rise, there is reason to believe many of the effects will be quite negative.  Even if some parts of the world were to benefit from a modest temperature increase — due to, say, a lengthened growing season — others will almost certainly lose.

My Version

Although I’m a conservative, I believe that global warming is a serious environmental concern. I have worked on this issue for twenty years, including a decade at the Competitive Enterprise Institute where I edited this book. I believe humans have increased greenhouse gas concentrations, which will likely cause an increase in global mean temperatures. Even if some places gain from a modest temperature increase, other places will lose.

Though a sentence like “While substantial uncertainties remain as to the precise consequences of this increase and consequent temperature rise, there is reason to believe many of the effects will be quite negative” can be trimmed down to “We don’t know, but it’ll probably be bad”, why include it at all? It doesn’t really say anything.

Original Version

Many so-called skeptics note that environmental activists and some climate scientists exaggerate the likely effects of anthropogenic warming, distorting scientific findings and overstating the extent to which contemporary events (hurricanes, etc.) may be linked to human activity to date.  But the excesses of climate activists and bad behavior by politically active scientists (and the IPCC) do not, and should not, discredit the underlying science, or justify excoriating those who reach a different conclusion.  Indeed, most skeptics within the scientific community readily accept the basic science.  They contest the more extreme climate projections, but accept the basic scientific claims. Take, for example, Patrick Michaels of the Cato Institute.  In one of his recent books, Climate of Extremes: The Global Warming Science They Don’t Want You to Know (co-authored with Robert Balling, another prominent “skeptic”), Michaels readily acknowledges that there is a warming trend and that human activity shares some of the blame.

My Version

Many environmental activists and some climate scientists exaggerate the effects of man-made warming, distorting scientific findings and incorrectly blaming recent events, such as hurricanes, on human activity. But this should not discredit the underlying science. Indeed, most skeptics within the scientific community contest the more extreme climate projections, but accept the basic scientific claims. Take, for example, Patrick Michaels of the Cato Institute and Robert Balling. In their recent book, Climate of Extremes: The Global Warming Science They Don’t Want You to Know, they acknowledge that the climate is changing and that humans share some of the blame.

One common way to trim this down was replacing sentences of the form “I believe X” or “Many skeptics note X” with just “X”. Also, although “acknowledge that the climate is changing” isn’t any shorter than ”acknowledges that there is a warming trend” , I think dropping the existential form (“there is”) makes things much more straightforward.

Oh yeah, I also replaced all instances of “anthropogenic” with “man-made” (c’mon, we’re not writing in Latin) and snipped all instances of “readily”, which is apparently the writer’s favourite word.

Original Version

The position espoused by Michaels, Balling and most (but not all) skeptics is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, but it is more of a nuisance than a catastrophe.  Some even argue that the net effect of climate change on the world will be positive, due to increased growing seasons, less severe winters and the like.  Were I a utilitarian, and if I placed substantial faith in such cost-benefit studies, I might find these arguments convincing, but I’m not and I don’t.  Even if these skeptics are correct that global warming will not be catastrophic and that the net effects in the near-to-medium term might be positive, there are still reasons to act.

My Version

The position of Michaels, Balling and most (but not all) skeptics is that man-made global warming is more of a nuisance than a catastrophe. Some even argue that climate change will be a net positive for the world, due to increased growing seasons, less severe winters and the like. Were I a utilitarian, and if I placed substantial faith in such cost-benefit studies, I might find these arguments convincing, but I’m not and I don’t. Even if global warming is just a nuisance — or even if it does have positive effects — there are still reasons to act.

Original Version

Accepting, for the sake of argument, that the skeptics’ assessment of the science is correct, global warming will produce effects that should be of concern.  Among other things, even a modest increase in global temperature can be expected to produce some degree of sea-level rise, with consequent negative effects on low-lying regions.  Michaels and Balling, for instance, have posited a “best guess” that sea levels will rise 5 to 11 inches over the next century.  Such an increase in sea levels is likely manageable in wealthy, developed nations, such as the United States.  Poorer nations in the developing world, however, will not be so able to adapt to such changes.  This is of particular concern because these effects will be most severe in those nations that are both least able to adapt and least responsible for contributing to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

My Version

Even if the skeptics are right, global warming will have adverse effects. For example, even a modest increase in global temperature will raise sea levels. Michaels and Balling’s “best guess” is that sea levels will rise 5 to 11 inches over the next century. For wealthy nations, this is a manageable increase. For poor nations, it isn’t.

Original Version

It is a well established principle in the Anglo-American legal tradition that one does not have the right to use one’s own property in a manner that causes harm to one’s neighbor.  There are common law cases gong back 400 years establishing this principle and international law has long embraced a similar norm.  As I argued at length in this paper, if we accept this principle, even non-catastrophic warming should be a serious concern, as even non-catastrophic warming will produce the sorts of consequences that have long been recognized as property rights violations, such as the flooding of the land of others.

My Version

A well established principle in the Anglo-American legal tradition is that one does not have the right to use one’s own property in a manner that causes harm to one’s neighbor. There are common law cases gong back 400 years establishing this principle and international law has long embraced a similar norm. As I argued at length in this paper, if we accept this principle, even non-catastrophic warming should be a serious concern; flooding the land of others is essentially violating their property rights.

Note: now that the author is finally starting to get to his point, there’s less to trim out. It’s more minor stylistic changes rather than cutting endless waffle.

Original Version

My argument is that the same general principles that lead libertarians and conservatives to call for greater protection of property rights should lead them to call for greater attention to the most likely effects of climate change.  It is a well recognized principle of common law that if company A is flooding the land of person B, it is irrelevant whether company A generates lots of economic prosperity for the local community (including B).  A’s action would still violate B’s property rights, and B would be entitled to relief of some sort.  By the same token, if the land of a farmer in Bangladesh is flooded, due in measurable and provable part to human-induced climate change, why would he be any less entitled to redress than a farmer who has his land flooded by his neighbor’s land-use changes? Property rights should not be sacrificed as part of some utilitarian calculus.  Libertarians readily accept this principle when government planners violate property rights in the name of economic development (see e.g., Kelo v. New London).  Yet they seem to abandon their commitment to property rights when it comes to global warming.

My Version

If libertarians and conservatives call for greater protection of property rights, they should also call for greater attention to the effects of climate change. In common law, if company A floods the land of person B, A’s action violates B’s property rights, and B is entitled to relief. Whether company A generates lots of economic prosperity for the local community (including B) is irrelevant. In the same way, if the land of a farmer in Bangladesh is flooded because of man-made global warming, why would he be any less entitled to redress? Property rights should not be sacrificed to purely utilitarian concerns. Libertarians accept this principle when government planners violate property rights in the name of economic development (see e.g., Kelo v. New London). Yet they seem to abandon their commitment to property rights when it comes to global warming.

Original Version

I readily recognize that there is, as yet, no international mechanism that adjudicate warming-based disputes, and I am quite sympathetic to those who believe any international entity capable of adjudicating such disputes would do more harm than good, but this does not negate the principle that global warming is, as best we can tell, likely to cause harms that should be addressed.  The question is how to do it.

My Version

Right now, there is no international mechanism to adjudicate warming-based disputes. Maybe an international entity capable of adjudicating such disputes would do more harm than good. Still, how should we address the problems caused by global warming?

I’m trying to preserve the meaning of the original as much as possible. If I was reworking the structure of the article, this paragraph would probably go.

Original Version

Accepting that global warming is a serious problem does not require the embrace of federal regulation of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act, as currently undertaken by the EPA.  I have been quite critical of these efforts, which I believe are based on a misinterpretation of the Act by the Supreme Court.  CAA regulation will be extremely costly but will not produce emission reductions sufficient to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.  The pork-laden cap-and-trade legislation passed by the House of Representatives would not be much better.  What then should we do?

My Version

Firstly, fighting global warming does not require federal regulation of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act, as currently undertaken by the EPA. I have been critical of these efforts, which I believe are based on a misinterpretation of the Act by the Supreme Court. CAA regulation will be extremely costly but will not produce emission reductions sufficient to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. The pork-laden cap-and-trade legislation passed by the House of Representatives would not be much better. What then should we do?

Original Version

If the effects of global warming are to be mitigated, it is necessary to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a reasonable level.  The emission reductions necessary for this to be achieved are enormous, and far beyond the capability of existing technologies.  Just to reach a reasonable intermediate target the U.S. would have to reduce its emissions to levels not seen in 100 years, and reduce per capita emissions to levels not seen since Reconstruction.  And even this would not be enough, for if equivalent emission reductions are not made elsewhere, it would all be for naught.  As I explain in the first part of this paper, dramatic technological innovation is necessary to address the threat of climate change.

My Version

To mitigate the effects of global warming, we must stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a reasonable level. This requires enormous reductions in emissions — far beyond the capability of existing technologies. Just to reach a reasonable intermediate target the U.S. would have to reduce its emissions to levels not seen in 100 years, and reduce per capita emissions to levels not seen since Reconstruction. Even this would not be enough if equivalent emission reductions are not made in other countries. As I explain in the first part of this paper, dramatic technological innovation is necessary.

Original Version

As Roger Pielke Jr. persuasively argues in his book The Climate Fix, nations will not decarbonize their economies until it is relatively cheap and easy to do so.  Therefore, those who are concerned about climate change, as I am, should be pursuing policies that will make it cheaper and easier to adopt low-carbon technologies.  What should these policies be?  I’ve suggested several.

First, the federal government should support technology inducement prizes to encourage the development of commercially viable low-carbon technologies.  For reasons I explain in this paper, such prizes are likely to yield better results at lower cost than traditional government R&D funding or regulatory mandates that seek to spur innovation.

My Version

As Roger Pielke Jr. persuasively argues in his book The Climate Fix, nations will not decarbonize their economies until it is cheap and easy to do so. Therefore, we should be pursuing policies that will make it cheaper and easier to adopt low-carbon technologies. What should these policies be? I’ve suggested several.

First, the federal government should support prizes to encourage the development of commercially viable low-carbon technologies. For reasons I explain in this paper, such prizes are likely to yield better results at lower cost than traditional government R&D funding or regulatory mandates that seek to spur innovation.

Original Version

Second, the federal government should seek to identify and reduce barriers to the development and deployment of alternative technologies.  Whatever the economic merits of the Cape Wind project, it is ridiculous that it could take over a decade for a project such as this to go through the state and federal permitting processes.  This sort of regulatory environment discourages private investment in these technologies.

My Version

Second, the federal government should reduce barriers to the development and deployment of alternative technologies. Whatever the economic merits of the Cape Wind project, it is ridiculous that it took over a decade for it to go through the state and federal permitting processes. This sort of regulatory environment discourages private investment in these technologies.

Original Version

Third, I believe the United States should adopt a revenue-neutral carbon tax, much like that suggested by NASA’s James Hansen.  Specifically, the federal government should impose a price on carbon that is fully rebated to taxpayers on a per capita basis.  This would, in effect, shift the incidence of federal taxes away from income and labor and onto energy consumption and offset some of the potential regressivity of a carbon tax.  For conservatives who have long supported shifting from an income tax to a sales or consumption tax, and oppose increasing the federal tax burden, this should be a no brainer.  If fully rebated, there is no need to worry about whether the government will put the resulting revenues to good use, but the tax would provide a significant incentive to reduce carbon energy use.  Further, a carbon tax would be more transparent and less vulnerable to rent-seeking and special interest mischief than equivalent cap-and-trade schemes and would also be easier to account for within the global trading system.  All this means a revenue-neutral carbon tax could be easier to enact than cap-and-trade.  And as for a broader theoretical justification, if the global atmosphere is a global commons owned by us all, why should not those who use this commons to dispose of their carbon emissions pay a user fee to compensate those who are affected.

My Version

Third, the United States should adopt a revenue-neutral carbon tax, much like that suggested by NASA’s James Hansen. Specifically, the federal government should impose a price on carbon that is fully rebated to taxpayers on a per capita basis. This would shift federal taxes away from income and labor and onto energy consumption and offset some of the potential regressivity of a carbon tax. For conservatives who have long supported shifting from an income tax to a sales or consumption tax, and oppose increasing the federal tax burden, this should be a no brainer. If fully rebated, there is no need to worry about whether the government will put the resulting revenues to good use, but the tax would provide a significant incentive to reduce carbon energy use. Further, a carbon tax would be more transparent and less vulnerable to rent-seeking and special interest mischief than equivalent cap-and-trade schemes and would also be easier to account for within the global trading system. All this means a revenue-neutral carbon tax could be easier to enact than cap-and-trade. Furthermore, if the global atmosphere is a global commons, shouldn’t those who use this commons to dispose of their carbon emissions pay a user fee to compensate those affected?

This paragraph should probably be cut down significantly (the fact it’s so much longer than the other 3 policy paragraphs is a warning sign). I’m guessing the writer expects this to be the most controversial policy he puts forward, and so wanted to give more justification for it.

Original Version

Fourth and finally, it is important to recognize that some degree of warming is already hard-wired into the system.  This means that some degree of adaptation will be necessary.  Yet as above, recognizing the reality of global warming need not justify increased federal control over the private economy.  There are many market-oriented steps that can, and should, be taken to increase the country’s ability to adapt to climate change including, as I’ve argued here and here, increased reliance upon water markets, particularly in the western United States where the effects of climate change on water supplies are likely to be most severe.

My Version

Fourth and finally, we must recognise that some degree of warming is inevitable, and so some degree of adaptation will be necessary. But again, recognizing the reality of global warming need not justify increased federal control over the private economy. There are many market-oriented steps that could increase the country’s ability to adapt to climate change. One example is increased reliance upon water markets, particularly in the western United States, where the effects of climate change on water supplies are likely to be most severe.

Original Version

I recognize that a relatively brief post like this is unlikely to convince many people who have set positions on climate change.  I can already anticipate a comment thread filled with charges and counter-charges over the science.  But I hope this post has helped illustrate that the embrace of limited government principles need not entail the denial of environmental claims and that a concern for environmental protection need not lead to an ever increasing mound of prescriptive regulation.  And for those who wish to explore these arguments in further detail, there’s lots more in the links I’ve provided throughout this post.

My Version

A relatively brief post like this is unlikely to convince many people who have set positions on climate change. I can already anticipate a comment thread filled with charges and counter-charges over the science. But I hope this post has helped illustrate that principles of limited government need not entail the denial of environmental claims and that a concern for environmental protection need not lead to an ever increasing mound of prescriptive regulation. And for those who wish to explore these arguments in further detail, there’s lots more in the links I’ve provided throughout this post.

I think this final paragraph explains some of the problems with the post – since he was writing mainly for a conservative, American audience, he felt he had to spend the first half of the article reiterating basic positions on the science before getting to the point (that there’s a libertarian/conservative justification for fighting global warming, and then some specific policy recommendations). If I was going to do any further editing, I’d rework the basic article structure – explain his basic point in the first paragraph, and cut out most of the discussion around the scientific debate.

This was a fun exercise – I read somewhere that if you want to get better at writing, what’s important isn’t 10,000 hours of writing time (or else writing emails all day would make you a literary great), but 10,000 hours of editing time. Makes sense.

 

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One Simple Exercise That Can Make You More Succesful

Think about the things that are important to you. Perhaps you care about creativity, family relationships, your career, or having a sense of humour. Pick two or three of these values and write a few sentences about why they are important to you. You have fifteen minutes. It could change your life.

This simple writing exercise may not seem like anything ground-breaking, but its effects speak for themselves. In a university physics class, Akira Miyake from the University of Colorado used it to close the gap between male and female performance. In the university’s physics course, men typically do better than women but Miyake’s study shows that this has nothing to do with innate ability. With nothing but his fifteen-minute exercise, performed twice at the beginning of the year, he virtually abolished the gender divide and allowed the female physicists to challenge their male peers.

The exercise is designed to affirm a person’s values, boosting their sense of self-worth and integrity, and reinforcing their belief in themselves. For people who suffer from negative stereotypes, this can make all the difference between success and failure.

Source: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2010/11/25/15-minute-writing-exercise-closes-the-gender-gap-in-university-level-physics#.UR1XE2RddPI. Though the article discusses how this exercise specifically help disadvantaged groups, I think it’s useful for anyone.

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How solid is the Iron Law of Oligarchy?

From Quora:

How solid is the Iron Law of Oligarchy?

From Wikipedia: The iron law of oligarchy is a political theory, first developed by the German syndicalist sociologist Robert Michelsin his 1911 book, Political Parties. It claims that rule by an elite, or “oligarchy“, is inevitable as an “iron law” within any organization as part of the “tactical and technical necessities” of organization. Michels particularly addressed the application of this law to representative democracy, and stated: “It is organization which gives birth to the dominion of the elected over the electors, of the mandataries over the mandators, of the delegates over the delegators. Who says organization, says oligarchy.” He went on to state that “Historical evolution mocks all the prophylactic measures that have been adopted for the prevention of oligarchy.” Michels stated that the official goal of representative democracy of eliminating elite rule was impossible, that representative democracy is a façade legitimizing the rule of a particular elite, and that elite rule, that he refers to as oligarchy, is inevitable.

My answer:

Yes, and it’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s essential for the survival of large organisations.

Small organisations are inherently nimbler than large organisations. This normally makes them smarter and better equipped to make long-term plans. (They can move through Boyd’s OODA loop faster).

Of course, large organisations are inherently more powerful than small organisations. But being slower than small organisations, they can’t always coordinate their members to make effective use of that power.

Solution: have a smaller sub-organisation that’s in charge and manages the rest of the organisation – this sub-organisation is the “elite”. If you don’t include an elite from the start, one will arise naturally, or the organisation will eventually be killed by another organisation or tear itself apart.

I only have a basic understanding of control theory, but one core idea of that field is the control system has to move faster than the system it controls. (As best I can tell, control theory is the modern version of what was once known as “cybernetics”, the study of organisation).

Therefore, almost every evolved system contains an elite sub-system (which sometimes has it’s own elite sub-system). Cells have a nucleus, animals have a brain (and brains have an executive function), tribes have a chieftain, countries have a parliament (which has a cabinet, which has a president), corporations have a board, etc.

An organisation with no controlling elite basically has no specialisation (like a slime mold, which has only one type of cell). I think “Headless” organisations like Anonymous, Occupy Wall Street, etc will probably either disintegrate over time or evolve into Al-Qaeda style networks of independent cells, which are far more capable.

Note: I’ve been reading a lot recently about the field of “cybernetics”, which seemed to have peaked around 30-40 years ago. By the way, “cybernetics” hear means the study of organisation, not cyborgs (though there is actually some crossover). I have a whole ton of posts on this vein I should write up some time.

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Zombies vs Mutants

I couldn’t resist answering this Quora thread: http://www.quora.com/Social-Psychology/What-is-the-most-powerful-us-vs-them-distinction-in-your-life/answer/Isaac-Lewis

What is the most powerful “us vs. them” distinction in your life?

Zombies vs Mutants.

Zombies go about the world, enjoying their lives, and are (almost) complete human beings, except for the fact that they have no brains. OK, they do have brains – some are even very intelligent – and they happily consume news, culture, gossip, and so on. However, they rarely produce anything, and if they do, it has no significant impact on the world. This is key.

A domesticated cat still needs to hunt, to be a fully integrated, self-actualizing cat. It’s what it evolved to do. Likewise, a human needs to use its brain to have a significant impact on the world. In our ancestral environment, just surviving was a big enough challenge that humans could completely self-actualize by hunting mammoths. No more.

As civilisation has advanced, it has slowly become impossible to live a fully human life. You now have two options: live a zombie life, where you enjoy physical and social comforts, but fail to self-actualize.

The other option? Become a mutant. Mutants are anti-zombies; they have swollen brains and stunted bodies. In other words, they focus on driving humanity forwards, at the expense of their health, friends and sanity. The most driven writers, artists, scientists, inventors, and entrepreneurs are all mutants.

(For fans of HG Wells, the two groups might be better termed Eloi and Morlocks).

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10 Ways to Make Money Online

Don’t let the title put you off, this is a surprisingly good overview of the different money-making options on the internet: 10 BEST WAYS TO MAKE MONEY ONLINE.

For most of the items on the list, I know someone who makes money that way – there are no crazy “get rich quick” scams. Unsurprisingly, that means that all the items require some combination of intelligence, learning time, and tolerance for risk (because of basic economics). But the effort/reward ratio is probably quite a bit better than trying to find a job in the “real” economy – there’s simply less competition.

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Welcome to the Jungle

OK, three reasons for this post’s title.

Welcome to the Jungle

First, I’ve seen the number of subscribers to this blog double over the last few weeks. It’s up to around 80 now. Still nothing impressive, but it’s at least getting interesting. So I first want to welcome all you new readers to your regularly scheduled dose of Isaac’s Meaningless Scribblings ™.

It’s been about six months since I started this blog, and I figured the half-birthday was a good time to take stock, and start identifying and developing certain themes that have started to emerge.

There’s a huge variance in the popularity of posts here. Some are duds, some rocket up to thousands of hits, and it’s impossible to predict in advance how a new post will do. But I now have some evidence on what people like to read, and I’m going to start writing up sequels to some of the better posts: both the crowd-pleasers, like this, and my unloved personal favourites, such as this.

Welcome to the Jungle

One of the emergent themes is metaphorical thinking; analogies and mental models. Though they’re very different in style and content, both this and this are good examples.

Venkatesh Rao of Ribbonfarm exemplifies this type of thinking. Richard Feynman was another who explained the complex and obscure by comparisons to the simple and everyday. I see this style of thinking as the intersection between verbal and mathematical reasoning; where metaphors meet models. Those two masters are both a million levels above me, of course, but I hope I can achieve at least passable mediocrity in the next few years.

As an example, here’s an analogy I stole off someone else recently (it’s hard to generate original metaphors; you have to be a collector). A startup has three phases: the jungle, the dirt track and the highway. Search, refinement and optimisation.

I’ve just softly launched my own startup, The CTO Network. I’m definitely in the jungle right now — hacking around in all directions, trying to find anything that looks remotely like a viable product or a worthwhile marketing channel. It’s hell, but I wouldn’t give it up for anything.

Welcome to the Jungle

How many Guns ‘n’ Roses songs can you name? I only know two. The story goes that their most famous song, Welcome to the Jungle, was composed by Axl Rose in about 15 minutes. Just something kinda cool he came out with in a random jam session. And it turned out to be their greatest hit.

The most popular thing I’ve ever written was a silly Quora post I put up last weekend, just something I wrote to entertain myself while bored during a late night coding session. I’ve written long-form essays on the history of attention economics and the future of digital content, but that one light piece of nerdy in-joke forum fluff has achieved ten times the success. Thirty-five thousand views, two thousand Quora upvotes, hundreds of retweets, a storm-in-a-teacup mini-controversy, a reposting on Forbes.com, and three potential customers for the CTO Network.

Kinda depressing, isn’t it? Guns ‘n’ Roses have a bunch of albums, but most people only know them for their top two songs. For several thousand internet strangers, I’m now merely “that (stupid/funny/attention-seeking) Quora guy”.

There’s two ways to look at Welcome to the Jungle-type hits. One is that as a creator, your internal work-quality-measurement is faulty. Work you’re proud of is the work produced at the edge of your abilities, so it’s not very good. Work you thought was trivial to produce was only trivial because you were playing well within your comfort zone — the area where you’ve already achieved mastery.

The other perspective is that quality and popularity are loosely correlated. Good stuff takes time to appreciate. Radio-friendly (or twitter-friendly) work is as easy to enjoy, and as easy to make, as a Big Mac.

I have no way of knowing which perspective is correct. Naturally, I prefer the latter, but I strongly suspect that it’s the former. Which means that the only way to create good stuff is to create (and ship) a lot of stuff, and see what sticks.

Human beings are naturally risk-averse, we suck at probability, and so following a portfolio strategy like this seems crazy and stupid. Most people think that if you produce something crap then you are crap. In reality, copious amounts of crap are an in-avoidable by-product of the search for gold.

So, yeah. Welcome to the jungle.

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